Friday, January 14, 2005

Three big events in 2005?

Moisés Naím, editor of Foreign Policy, chooses to warn of severe disruption in China in the Jan/Feb edition: is only natural that Beijing is wary of making decisions that might unleash social unrest and escalate into massive political upheaval. After all, if social discontent is rising when the country is the world’s top recipient of foreign direct investment and its economy is growing at 9 percent a year, then protests could explode if its performance ever sags. A sharp spike in unemployment, a drastic cut in social services, or a widespread banking failure wiping out people’s savings could all lead to millions of Chinese taking to the streets in protest. (Three Wise Men).

In the same edition, John J. Mearsheimer goes head to head with Zbigniew Brzezinski on the rise of China. "China cannot rise peacefully" says, predictably, the Chicago man (elsewhere credited with the observation"realism is what happens when you dial 911 [the emergency number] and nobody answers").

According to Foreign Policy, two other possible big events to watch for in 2005 (if I recall correctly: I have mislaid my copy of the magazine) are: a "Christian/Muslim" civil war in Nigeria; and an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilites.

1 comment:

Steve said...

Having lived in Nigeria, I would conclude that that prognostication is based on sufficient evidence. I predict that, should it happen, the world will turn a blind eye to it.