Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Karakorum to Kashmir

A few years ago on a hike high in the Karakorum my companion and I bumped into some blokes with fearsome thick beards and wild eyes. It turned out that most of them worked for Siemens in Karachi. They were a lovely chaps: educated, sophisticated and funny.

Even though I am now the father of a small child and hardly have a brain any more, I remain vaguely aware that all kinds of stuff is happening in this part of the world (including, on the sidelines, normal eccentricities such as a polo match at Shandur Pass), not to mention 'at home'.

Nevertheless it's sobering to be reminded via Joe Romm's blog of what is likely to be an important part of the big picture:
According to an article by Stephen Faris in Foreign Policy and the IPCC, the Himalayan glacier in the Kashmir province that provides 90 percent of Pakistan’s water for agricultural irrigation will disappear by 2035 as a consequence of climate change.
Is this really what the IPCC estimate says? They may:
a) be wrong on rate of melt: it could take longer;
b) underestimate the likely rate of temperature rise;
c) ...?

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Monday, July 13, 2009

System failure

In her attack on Sarah Palin, Peggy Noonan writes :
Here are a few examples of what we may face in the next 10 years: a profound and prolonged American crash, with the admission of bankruptcy and the spread of deep social unrest; one or more American cities getting hit with weapons of mass destruction from an unknown source; faint glimmers of actual secessionist movements as Americans for various reasons and in various areas decide the burdens and assumptions of the federal government are no longer attractive or legitimate.
Noonan may or may not be right with some of these predictions. [1] What is sure, though, is that serious leadership is needed, [2] and in many areas Obama is yet to prove more than words. Kevin Baker writes in the July edition of Harper's (my copy finally arrived: it comes to the U.K by slow boat):
Much like Herbert Hoover, Barack Obama is a man attempting to realize a stirring new vision of his society without cutting himself free from the dogmas of the past -- without accepting the inevitable conflict.

...Obama will have to directly attack the fortified bastion of the newest "new class" - the makers of the paper economy in which he came of age - if he is to accomplish anything. These interests did not spend fifty year shipping the greatest industrial economy in the history of the world over­seas only to be challenged by a newly empowered, green-economy working class. They did not spend much of the past two decades gobbling up previ­ously public sectors such as health care, education, and transportation only to have to compete with a reinvigorated public sector. They mean, even now, to use the bailout to make the government their helpless junior partner, and if they can they will devour every federal dollar available to recoup their own losses, and thereby preclude the use of any monies for the rest of Barack Obama's splendid vision.
[3]
Baker may or may not be right. With more likelihood, the Obama administration is already failing to meet the challenges of climate change, and -- without a radical push -- will be incapable of doing so. [4]

P.S. 14 July: I suppose the hope is that Obama may prove more Lincoln than Hoover: finding himself obliged to adopt a more radical goal (in Lincoln's case abolition) than the one (preservation of the Union) he first had in mind.

Footnotes:

1. See, for example, the U.S. government assessment of the threat of a nuclear bomb to a major western city (news report, workshop report).

2. Hard to see this coming from the Republicans. Truly bizarre, to me, is Noonan's characterization of 'the media' as the enemy. Isn't she a featured writer in the Wall Street Journal, owned by News International, which also owns Fox News etc? Also, I have a niggle with American usage of the word 'elite', a collective noun, to mean an individual. This is like using 'base' to mean an individual voter or activist.

3. See For Goldman, a swift return to lofty profits.

4. See, for example, James Hansen, 13 July 2009: Strategies and Sundance Kid.

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Thursday, July 09, 2009

Ex Africa aliquid bonum

Elizabeth Ohene comments on the visit of Bama Obarack, or is it Marack Omaba?

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Political, not personal

Forget short showers, says Derek Jensen
Would any sane person think dumpster diving would have stopped Hitler, or that composting would have ended slavery or brought about the eight-hour workday, or that chopping wood and carrying water would have gotten people out of Tsarist prisons, or that dancing naked around a fire would have helped put in place the Voting Rights Act of 1957 or the Civil Rights Act of 1964? Then why now, with all the world at stake,do so many people retreat into these entirely personal “solutions”?

Part of the problem is that we’ve been victims of a campaign of systematic misdirection. Consumer culture and the capitalist mindset have taught us to substitute acts of personal consumption (or enlightenment) for organized political resistance...

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Six impossible things before breakfast

Fred Pearce has argued that the proposed G8 pledge is/was scientifically illiterate. This looks more so:
As President Obama arrived for three days of meetings, negotiators for the world’s 17 leading polluters dropped a proposal to cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by midcentury, and emissions from the most advanced economies by 80 percent. But both the G-8 and the developing countries agreed to set a goal of stopping world temperatures from rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels.
-- G-8 Nations Fail to Agree on Plan to Fight Climate Change

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Monday, July 06, 2009

The sun watt won it


A solar-powered printing press invented by Augustin Mouchot printing 500 copies per hour of Le Chaleur Solaire for the festival of L'Union Francaises de la Jeuenesse at Jardin des Tuileries in Paris, 6 August 1882. Image featured in web pages for The Manchester Report

Saturday, July 04, 2009

The forest of lost children

The endangerment of children—that persistent [and greatly exaggerated] theme of our lives, arts, and literature over the past twenty years—resonates so strongly because, as parents, as members of preceding generations, we look at the poisoned legacy of modern industrial society and its ills, at the world of strife and radioactivity, climatological disaster, overpopulation, and commodification, and feel guilty. As the national feeling of guilt over the extermination of the Indians led to the creation of a kind of cult of the Indian, so our children have become cult objects to us, too precious to be risked. At the same time they have become fetishes, the objects of an unhealthy and diseased fixation. And once something is fetishized, capitalism steps in and finds a way to sell it.
-- from The Wilderness of Childhood by Michael Chabon

Friday, July 03, 2009

Memory and history

If any European country seems out of place in today's Europe, stranded in another historical moment, it is Belarus under the dictatorship of Aleksandr Lukashenko. Yet while Lukashenko prefers to ignore the Soviet killing fields in his country, wishing to build a highway over the death pits at Kuropaty, in some respects Lukashenko remembers European history better than his critics. By starving Soviet prisoners of war, shooting and gassing Jews, and shooting civilians in anti-partisan actions, German forces made Belarus the deadliest place in the world between 1941 and 1944. Half of the population of Soviet Belarus was either killed or forcibly displaced during World War II: nothing of the kind can be said of any other European country.

Belarusian memories of this experience, cultivated by the current dictatorial regime, help to explain suspicions of initiatives coming from the West. Yet West Europeans would generally be surprised to learn that Belarus was both the epicenter of European mass killing and the base of operations of anti-Nazi partisans who actually contributed to the victory of the Allies. It is striking that such a country can be entirely displaced from European remembrance. The absence of Belarus from discussions of the past is the clearest sign of the difference between memory and history...

...If there is a general political lesson of the history of mass killing, it is the need to be wary of what might be called privileged development: attempts by states to realize a form of economic expansion that designates victims, that motivates prosperity by mortality. The possibility cannot be excluded that the murder of one group can benefit another, or at least can be seen to do so. That is a version of politics that Europe has in fact witnessed and may witness again. The only sufficient answer is an ethical commitment to the individual, such that the individual counts in life rather than in death, and schemes of this sort become unthinkable.

The Europe of today is remarkable precisely in its unity of prosperity with social justice and human rights. Probably more than any other part of the world, it is immune, at least for the time being, to such heartlessly instrumental pursuits of economic growth. Yet memory has made some odd departures from history, at a time when history is needed more than ever. The recent European past may resemble the near future of the rest of the world. This is one more reason for getting the reckonings right.
-- from Holocaust: The Ignored Reality by Timothy Snyder

England's glory

Jonathan Stevenson quotes Lord Denning on the right of jurors to follow their own judgment:
This principle was established as long ago as 1670 in a celebrated case of the Quakers, William Penn and William Mead. All that they had done was to preach in London on a Sunday afternoon. They were charged with causing an unlawful and tumultuous assembly there. The judge directed the jury to find the Quakers guilty, but they refused. The Jury said Penn was guilty of preaching, but not of unlawful assembly. The Judge refused to accept this verdict. He threatened them with all sorts of pains and punishments. He kept them 'all night without meat, drink, fire, or other accommodation: they had not so much as a chamber pot, though desired'. They still refused to find the Quakers guilty of an unlawful assembly. He kept them another night and still they refused. He then commanded each to answer to his name and give his verdict separately. Each gave his verdict 'Not Guilty'. For this the judge fined them 40 marks apiece and cast them into prison until it was paid. One of them Edward Bushell, thereupon brought his (case) before the Court of the King's Bench. It was there held that no judge had any right to imprison a juryman for finding against his direction on a point of law; for the judge could never direct what the law was without knowing the facts, and of the facts the jury were the sole judge. The jury were thereupon set free.
P.S. But Stevenson and his co-defendents were found guilty.

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Afghanistan

When we are not presented with a dystopian vision, we are encouraged to be implausibly optimistic. ‘There can be only one winner: democracy and a strong Afghan state,’ Gordon Brown predicted in his most recent speech on the subject. Obama and Brown rely on a hypnotising policy language which can – and perhaps will – be applied as easily to Somalia or Yemen as Afghanistan. It misleads us in several respects simultaneously: minimising differences between cultures, exaggerating our fears, aggrandising our ambitions, inflating a sense of moral obligations and power, and confusing our goals. All these attitudes are aspects of a single worldview and create an almost irresistible illusion.
-- from The Irresistible Illusion by Rory Stewart.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

CCS and the boffins

An apparent contrast in views on carbon capture and storage between a Royal Society working group and David Mackay.

Going on the press release, the Society give as a prominent place to CCS. MacKay thinks it is the last thing we should talk about.

P.S. See correction in the comment attached to this post.

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Old art, new art

Reviewing Radical Nature, Hari Kunzru thinks many artists have lowered their sights over recent decades:
If one thing unifies the second generation of Radical Nature's artists, it's a certain pragmatism. This may seem an odd thing to say of people who put wolves on trailers and build rafts for plants, but in a show where it's often hard to tell whether a piece was made in 1973 or 2003 it's one of the few areas where they seem to separate themselves from their predecessors. If the 70s generation was about global ideas and blue-sky thinking, there's now a certain modesty in the air. No one believes we're about to enter a new age. It's more about making the best of the old one. Projects are conceived in local terms and (barring floating cities) are less about saving the world than recovering some flotsam and jetsam from the collapse. This is perhaps another source of the pervasive sense of sadness I felt going round the show - the feeling that, 40 years ago, there was a sense of possibility that has since vanished.
He also mentions Amy Balkin, whose ambitions are sky high:
[the] legal battles [of this radical Californian artist] to make a piece of desert land truly "public" (This Is the Public Domain) and to create a global "climate park" in the atmosphere (Public Smog) show that the field has moved further on than one might think from wandering round the Barbican gallery.

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Monday, June 29, 2009

The child in time

Abbie Garrington suggests that one impact of climate change may be to shake contemporary culture beyond postmodernism, which "created narratives in which time became uncertain...[and] we were invited to think again about the nature of storytelling". In the new regime:
narratives play with time in response to the overarching question of climate change – the priority has shifted from the storytelling itself, to the tale told, the message of the story, and the likely responses of the reader. This imagined future on the smallest scale – the future anticipated thoughts and actions of the reader of or listener to the narrative – is the point where storytelling meets activism. [1]
As has been well said, anthropogenic climate change pushes us to think about time in a very different way. This includes a challenge to adequately imagine the human place in deep time; one cannot, I think, really *get it* unless one fully digests the enormity behind phrases such as "greatest change since the PETM". [2]

A striking instance comes from Martin Brasier, who wonders whether we may be on the cusp of something as big as the Cambrian explosion. As I have noted
his hunch [is] that the perturbations in the Earth system consequent upon human activities [are] so great that 'we could be on the cusp of a Cambrian-like transformation' of life on Earth (bigger than, say, the K-T) -- though whether it [will] be a 'new Cambrian explosion' or a 'return pre-Cambrian conditions' he was not, when I asked him, inclined to speculate.
Get to this kind of scale, and a bifurcation explored by Thomas Nagel comes to mind:
From far enough outside my birth seems accidental, my life pointless, and my death insignificant, but from inside my never having been born seems nearly unimaginable, my life monstrously important, and my death catastrophic. Though the two viewpoints clearly belong to one person -- these problems wouldn’t arise if they didn’t -- they function independently enough so that each can come as something of a surprise to the other, like an identity that has been temporarily forgotten.
One of the challenges for stories tellers, activists and other change makers is to bridge that gap in ways that help provide a sense of meaning (and so may form part of the foundation for effective non-violent political organising to defeat 'planet traitors' [3]). It means, as has been well said, "finishing Darwin's sentence": coming to terms with evolution over the long term a human place in co-creation of the future. [4]


Related posts on this blog include The Holy Crap Factor, Holy Crap 2, Embers and Fear and Trembling.

Footnotes

[1] Garrington's post is one of several by participants in a 20 June workshop titled Changing Climate Stories. She continues:
Stories have the advantage over scientific data in this respect. While science has the analytical tools to predict the future, beyond modelling it cannot imaginatively inhabit the future it predicts. This is where stories come in.
[2] David MacKay's book (Robert Butler notes) is dedicated "to those who will not have the benefit of two billion years' accumulated energy reserves". This seems to join the long term and short term nicely in the mind (although I wonder about the reasoning behind "two billion years." Weren't the majority of fossil fuels, including methane clathrates, laid down in a shorter period just a few hundred million years ago?).

[3] Note the criticism of this rhetoric here.

[4] For Thomas Berry, an optimist:
the perspective of evolution provides the most comprehensive context for understanding the human phenomenon in relation to other life forms. This implies for Berry that we are one species among others and as self reflective beings we need to understand our particular responsibility for the continuation of the evolutionary process. We have reached a juncture where we are realizing that we will determine which life forms survive and which will become extinct. We have become co-creators as we have become conscious of our role in this extraordinary, irreversible developmental sequence of the emergence of life forms.

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Friday, June 26, 2009

To read

‘This is a guide for instructing posthumans in living a Dada life’ Codrescu begins. ‘It is not advisable, nor was it ever, to lead a Dada life. It is and it was always foolish and self-destructive to lead a Dada life because a Dada life will include by definition pranks, buffoonery, masking, deranged senses, intoxication, sabotage, taboo breaking, playing childish and/or dangerous games, waking up dead gods, and not taking education seriously.’ This entirely impractical self-help guide to Dada provides an A-Z encyclopedia of the movement’s buzz-words, all in the context of an imaginary chess game between Tristan Tzaa and V.I. Lenin.
-- from The Posthuman Dada Guide by Andrei Codrescu

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Iran analysis

Danny Postel circulates four views:
Slavoj Žižek
We are witnessing a great emancipatory event... If our cynical pragmatism will make us lose the capacity to recognize this emancipatory dimension, then we in the West are effectively entering a post-democratic era, getting ready for our own Ahmadinejads.

Hamid Dabashi
We are witness to something quite extraordinary, perhaps even a social revolution... We need to adjust our lenses and languages in order to see better... This movement is ahead of our inherited politics, floating ideologies or mismatched theories.

Robert Fisk
Symbols are not enough to win this battle: It is indeed an 'intifada' that has broken out in Iran, however hopeless its aims.

Behzad Yaghmaian
A specter is haunting Iran, the specter of a bloody civil war... The democracy movement may become collateral damage in a larger war.

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Gadgets of desire

At last, my search for what it takes to be a real man is over...

With technological brilliance of this order to hand, tackling global warming should a cinch.

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Anime in the Anthropocene

A O Scott makes a case for Princess Mononoke by Hayao Miyazaki as a response to anxieties around global warming and environmental catastrophes.

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Flows, not stores

Oliver Morton, sounding a little like Walt Patterson, talks sense:
The fact that a great deal of energy was stored away in fossil fuels over time has conditioned people to think of energy itself as something embodied in fuels. But energy, which cannot be created or destroyed, is far better seen in terms of flows than of stores.

An extraordinary amount of solar energy flows through the earth-system, coming in as sunlight, leaving as infrared radiation. On its way through the system it runs through many different channels, like the wind and the waves and the carbon cycle. The challenge of the carbon-climate crisis is to put to work these flows and others — the flow of heat stored for billions of years in the interior of the earth, and of energy stored away earlier still in the nuclei of radioactive elements — in ways that make civilization independent of the fossil fuels stored away in the crust.

The question of how to use the biosphere against global warming is thus better seen in terms of harvesting energy from the carbon cycle, rather than storing away carbon. And there is much that can be done here. Biomass already supplies a lot of energy — a large part of the world cooks with it, for example — but the ways in which it is used are terribly inefficient. New agronomy, new crops and new technologies can all add to the flow of energy out of the plant and into the cooker battery, hot water or whatever. In that way, bioenergy can be substituted for fossil fuel.

But, Morton continues, "in itself, expanding the carbon cycle this way cannot be the whole solution."

Meanwhile, James Hansen and others make a stand against coal.

Monday, June 22, 2009

'Values and stories'

Remarks by Caspar Henderson for Panel 1, "The necessities of conservation" at The Open Ground, 20 June 2009.

Intro

I didn’t have to think for very long about the title of this panel before I realised that the questions it raises are too difficult for me. So instead here is some recent news from a parallel universe:
Dateline: Earth. Former U.S. vice president Al Gore—who for the past three decades has unsuccessfully attempted to warn humanity of the coming destruction of our planet, only to be mocked and derided by the very people he has tried to save—launched his infant son into space Monday in the faint hope that his only child would reach the safety of another world...

In the final moments before the Earth's destruction, Gore expressed hope that his son would one day grow up to carry on his mission by fighting for truth, justice, and the American way elsewhere in the universe, using his Earth-given superpowers to become a champion of the downtrodden and a reducer of carbon emissions across the galaxy.
OK, that’s enough from The Onion.[1] Speaking seriously now, the issues require much greater knowledge and understanding than I have. My fellow panelists Sam Turvey and Emily Nicholson have already outlined more than a few of the rudiments, as well as some warnings. Still, in the few minutes available I want to make a some remarks that I hope will help open space for thought and exchange in the discussion that follows. I want to say something about values and stories.

1. Values on shifting ground

I can think of at least two sets of questions relating to our title, ‘the necessities of conservation’. First, what is needed in order to conserve threatened species and ecosystems (not to speak of cultures)? In other words, how do we do it? Second, what are the reasons we need conservation? In other words, why do we do it?

I suspect that for many people here the answer to this second set of questions seems obvious, and goes something like this: even where we do not depend directly on threatened species and ecosystems for our life and well-being they have absolute value as a source of beauty, wonder and potentiality; we and the world are better off merely by the fact of their existence. [2]

I want try and explore what an answer like that really means. It’s not that I don’t endorse it. I probably do. It is, rather, that I think we need to look deeper and further ahead if an answer along those lines is going to stand up in a world that, as we’ve been hearing, is already greatly impoverished in its biodiversity and where things look likely to get worse.

In the cultures of contemporary industrial capitalism, and in other cultures, we make a distinction between on the one hand things and beings that are instrumentally useful (that is, entities that may be used or consumed), and on the other hand things and beings judged to be of absolute valuable (entities that may not be used or consumed, or at least only used or consumed in specific and limited ways). So, to take a trivial example, a cool drink on a hot day has value in use, in consumption: it is instrumental in quenching thirst (and, maybe, providing a pleasurable taste). By contrast, the well-being of my little daughter is -- for me, and in law -- an absolute good. I can ‘use’ her by asking her to fetch me a cool drink, but I will not exchange her for a cool drink, at least not today!

In our society, and in others, the line between what is instrumentally useful and absolutely valuable shifts over time. Think of the institution of slavery and laws on human rights or even animal rights. This line, or borderland, remains a matter of intense negotiation and debate. [3] But in every culture, as far as I know, there are things and beings that are considered absolutely valuable (or sacred) and which cannot be wholly consumed or exchanged for things that are of only instrumental value. [By the way, if anyone thinks this last assertion is wrong I’d be fascinated to hear the argument.]

With regard to conservation today, there comes a point -- or so many conservationists and others believe -- when instrumentality goes too far, and you have to make a stand for the absolute value of you seek to protect, no matter what the cost. Where ‘nature, like liberty, has no price tag …[and] species are priceless, as are human dignity and freedom’.

That assertion, made by the prominent conservationist Richard Leakey in 1997, is taken up by another, a bird man named Nigel Collar [4], in a paper published in 2003 titled ‘Beyond Value: biodiversity and the freedom of the mind’.
The diminishment of nature is the diminishment of man. Extinction is the negation of the possible; it creates poverty in the mind. Our capacity to experience, to imagine, to contemplate, erodes with the erosion of nature, and with it we forfeit piecemeal — landscape by landscape, site by site, species by species — the freedom of mind which yet we cherish as ultimately the greatest feature of our human identity. This is not to say that we should never seek to provide justifications for conservation based on precise, measurable benefits to mankind at whatever scale. It is, however, to say that we should also and primarily have the courage and honesty to assert that the reason biodiversity matters is because it confers on us an imprecise, unmeasurable and immeasurable well-being that is located in the spirit rather than in the wallet.
Fine words, you may think. How well will they fare against the challenges of the 21st century?

Your answer will depend in part on what you think those challenges are. I will assert, rather simplistically, that they are of two kinds. First, there are the obstacles presented by people and institutions in our own society and in others who simply do not accept the claims made by Leakey, Collar and others, either because they are indifferent or because their sense of what is absolutely valuable does not extend to threatened ecosystems and species. To take just one example, there are those whose “deeply embedded view is that Christ is returning soon, so why should we care about the environment?” The good news, I think, is that while overcoming these kinds of obstacles will be far from easy and is not guaranteed, it is -- other things being equal -- achievable. [5]

But, of course, other things are seldom equal, and this is where we come to the second set of challenges, which may be deeper and more intractable. I’m thinking of the challenges presented by rapid environmental change and the consequences for ecosystems and human behaviour.

Exactly how these changes manifest now and how they will manifest in future is something on which reasonable people disagree, up to a certain point. Quite a lot is unpredictable and/or depends, at least in part, on decisions not yet made. Nevertheless, a powerful body of evidence indicates that, in addition to the ‘normal’ encroachments and impacts of economic development (which by themselves can collapse a fishery or eliminate up to 80% of wild orangutans in a decade [6]), human activity is also leading to turbulence in the biogeochemical cycle greater than at any time in hundreds of thousands or even millions of years. This is likely to lead to large scale displacement and/or extinction of plant and animal species (creating space for other ecosystems and species). We may also see large scale social disruption: mass migration [7] and conflict as societies seek new coping strategies or fail to cope.

However complex the picture is already, there are further uncertainties. We may well see new ways in which human beings become resourceful. There is the possibility of ‘game-changing’ advances in science and technology (including but not limited to step changes in information-, energy- and biotechnology). There may be surprises, for good or ill, that we have hardly imagined.

This second set of challenges and what flows from them is, I think, likely to alter the ground, both literally and figuratively speaking, on which our values lie. Our sense that there are some things that are absolute goods may not change, but our sense of what they are may well do so.

2. New stories

One of the important ways in which values are communicated and tested is through stories. I’m using the word story here in a very broad sense -- governing myths and narratives, and the many ways people string events, ideas, symbols together in fiction and other arts, marketing [8] and propaganda. The poet Muriel Rukeyser was largely not completely wrong when she said “the universe is made up of stories, not of atoms."

Here’s another quote: "If Lévi-Strauss is right, myths are constructed by a universal logic that, like language itself, is as characteristic for human beings as nest-building is for birds." [9]

So wrote Lewis Thomas, a noted American physician and essayist who died in 1993. He continued "our powerful story [today], equivalent in its way to a universal myth, is evolution. Never mind that it is true whereas myths are not; it is filled with symbolism, and this is the way it has influenced the mind of society."[10]

Thomas’s contention is nicely illustrated by the neurologist and author Oliver Sacks. In an essay titled Darwin and the Meaning of Flowers, he recalls how his mother helped to open a new way of looking at the world to him:
While most of the flowers in the garden had rich scents and colors, we also had two magnolia trees, with huge but pale and scentless flowers. The magnolia flowers, when ripe, would be crawling with tiny insects, little beetles. Magnolias, my mother explained, were among the most ancient of flowering plants and had appeared nearly a hundred million years ago, at a time when "modern" insects like bees had not yet evolved, so they had to rely on a more ancient insect, a beetle, for pollination. Bees and butterflies, flowers with colors and scents, were not preordained, waiting in the wings -- and they might never have appeared. The would develop together, in infinitesimal stages, over millions of years. The idea of a world without bees or butterflies, without scent or color, affected me with awe.

The notion of such vast eons of time, and the power of tiny, undirected changes which by their accumulation could generate new worlds -- worlds of enormous richness and variety -- was intoxicating. Evolutionary theory provided, for many of us, a sense of deep meaning and satisfaction that belief in a Divine Plan had never achieved. The world became a transparent surface, through which one could see the whole history of life...
Evolution is one of the big stories in our society and in others over the last 150 years or so. But it is not the only one. Another -- older but no less potent for that -- is what Mankind does with the powers it acquires. “Our quest, as a civilisation”, says Jaron Lanier, a pioneer of ‘virtual reality’, “is to answer the question, how do we save ourselves from ourselves without losing ourselves?”

Contrasting future scenarios are captured in the terms ‘Eremozoic’ and ‘Ecozoic’.

The Eremozoic means the ‘age of loneliness’. The term was coined by the entomologist E O Wilson , who had in mind the prospect of a biological age after the sixth great extinction when life on earth will be greatly impoverished as a result of human activities. John Gray, the political philosopher famous for his pessimism, picks up and runs with the term:
It seems feasible that over the coming century human nature will be scientifically remodeled. If so, it will be done haphazardly, as an upshot of struggles in the murky realm where big business, organised crime, and the hidden parts of government vie for control. If the human species is re-engineered it will not be as a result of humanity assuming a godlike control of its destiny. It will be another twist in man's fate.
The Ecozoic, by contrast, is ‘happy time.’ Thomas Berry, an eco-theologian and deep ecologist who died aged 94 at the beginning of this month, defined it as:
the future period when human conduct will be guided by the ideal of an integral earth community, a period when humans will be present upon the Earth in a mutually enhancing manner. [11]
Those two scenarios (cartoon-like in how I present them here) lie towards the extreme of a continuum where outcomes are more mixed and murky. And it’s somewhere in this middle of this continuum, unsure of how things will go, that we actually live and tell our stories.

I am writer, not a conservation practitioner. (My experience of actual conservation work is pretty much confined to planting trees in rain and mud!) At the moment I am working on something called The Book of Barely Imagined Beings. It’s a 21st ‘bestiary’: stories about unlikely animals and other beings that share the continuum with us. I use the word ‘stories’ advisedly. All of the animals I am writing about are real, and all of the stories are true. But why write about animals at all? Part of the answer is that (to quote the anthropologist Claude Levi-Strauss once again and very much out of context ) “animals are good to think with.” [12]

Here are a few examples (not necessarily covered in the book):
The African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis

An example you may be familiar with, not least thanks to a recent article about extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert published in the New Yorker. This remarkable amphibian was used for the first widespread pregnancy tests in the early 20th century after it was discovered that the urine from pregnant women induced oocyte (female germ cell) production in the frog. The frog was distributed to physicians offices all round the world. Unfortunately, it looks as if Xenopus Laevis had a hitchhiker: a fungus called Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis which causes it no harm is fatal to many other amphibian species: global amphibian crash.

‘Blood falls’, Antarctica

Not an animal but surely one of the strangest life forms on the planet [13]. Get a bit weird here: in a thousand years will humans or their descendants living in Antarctica (contra Stephen Pyne End of the World) [Try not to sound insane]

The Honey Badger

The ‘fiercest mustelid.’ Widespread dryland distribution. Interaction (debated) with Honeyguide in East Africa. Hadza people of Tanzania. The ‘man-eating badgers’ of Basra urban legend in 2007, and the British armed forces forced to deny responsibility (comedy). Serious point: the badgers may have been fleeing the newly re-flooded wetlands that Saddam had drained to eliminate a haven for his enemies.

The Japanese Macaque

Those are the characters you see in hot springs in the mountains of Japan. They are the northernmost member of the genus Macaque, which are the second most widespread primates after man. Macaques are not especially intelligent, but they do have particular kind of cunning, sometimes termed Machiavellian intelligence. The behavioural biologist Dario Maestripieri writes: By the time human beings start the global nuclear war that will destroy our civilization, there won’t be any great apes left for Earth to become the Planet of the Apes. But chances are there will still be plenty of rhesus macaques around.

Pacific Salmon

Pacific Salmon can distinguish a single drop from their own river among 8 million litres of seawater. When they arrive at their home rivers some of them swim as much as 2,000 miles upstream. They move against strong currents with little effort, much as a yacht tacks into the wind. And these are animals we now farm in cages.

The White-naped Crane

Something like 5,000 individuals remain in the wild. IUCN classes it as vulnerable to extinction. Breeds in Mongolia, China, and Russia (Khinganski Nature Reserve). One of its few remaining overwintering grounds is the DMZ in Korea, one of the world’s ‘Involuntary parks’ (other examples include the closed zone around Chernobyl). A beautiful and rare bird’s survival is at least in part down to multi-decade phony war that, even now, could spill into nuclear conflict. [more on ‘the dark side’].

A happy ending

Barack Obama’s remarkable speech in Cairo. [14] Crucial, he said, respect the dignity of all human beings. Conservation mission: extend recognition of dignity, glory (?!) (but not equivalence) to a wider-range of beings and earth system processes.

Also
Prosperity consists in our ability to flourish as human beings – within the ecological limits of a finite planet. The challenge for our society is to create the conditions under which this is possible. It is the most urgent task of our times. [15]


Footnotes

1. Al Gore Places Infant Son In Rocket To Escape Dying Planet. The Onion, July 30, 2008.

2. In an old trope, failing to protect the rain forests is like allowing a library to burn down without having any idea of what’s in the books. Perhaps this image is obsolete in the electronic age.

3. See, for example, Michael Sandel, Reith Lectures 2009

4. Leventis Fellow in Conservation Biology, Birdlife International, Cambridge University Dept of Zoology

5. See The Eco Evangelist. The Observer, 7 June 2009. Craig Sorley an American evangelical Christian and head of Care of Creation Kenya. Selected as a ‘hero of the environment' for 2008 by Time Magazine.
Sorley's primary occupation is to use the Bible to make an environmental case: God delighted in his creation (Genesis 1:31) and put man in his garden "to work it and take care of it" (Genesis 2:15); Jesus found more glory in the wonders of nature than in the constructions of man (Matthew 6:28-29); all things were created by Christ and for Christ (Colossians 1:16). Conservative Evangelicals are far more receptive to an environmental message, explains Sorley, when it's presented to them in "the language they appreciate most ... the language of the Bible."
6. Among examples in the media in just the last few days: Mekong dolphins ‘almost extinct’ (BBC 18 June 2009): Pollution in the Mekong river has pushed freshwater dolphins in Cambodia and Laos to the brink of extinction, the conservation group WWF has said. Only 64 to 76 Irrawaddy dolphins remain in the Mekong, it says

7. See, for example, Making the Case for Climate as a Migration Driver by Tom Zeller, Green Inc, 15 June 2009 (thanks to Benjamin Morris for this link);The Human Tsunami: How Climate Change Will Move Masses -- Ghana’s Environment Refugees, Financial Times, 19 June 2009. Many parts of the world start from a position of high vulnerability. See: World hunger 'hits one billion', BBC online 19 June 2009

8. Marketing is now “the most dominant force in human culture,” claims Darwinian psychologist Geoffrey Miller.

9. See On the Origin of Stories by Brian Boyd (2009)

10. from Some Biomythology published in The Lives of a Cell (1974).

11. Happy as it may be, it doesn’t come without work. As one commentator on Berry’s work puts it:
the perspective of evolution provides the most comprehensive context for understanding the human phenomenon in relation to other life forms. This implies for Berry that we are one species among others and as self reflective beings we need to understand our particular responsibility for the continuation of the evolutionary process. We have reached a juncture where we are realizing that we will determine which life forms survive and which will become extinct. We have become co-creators as we have become conscious of our role in this extraordinary, irreversible developmental sequence of the emergence of life forms.

[12] "Animals which are tabooed are chosen…because they are good to think, not because they are good to eat." Animals that are good to think. What exactly does this mean? In The World of Goods: Towards an Anthropology of Consumption, the anthropologists Mary Douglas and Baron Isherwood explain:
If it is said that the essential function of language is its capacity for poetry, we shall assume that the essential function of consumption is its capacity to make sense… Forget that commodities are good for eating, clothing, and shelter; forget their usefulness and try instead the idea that commodities are good for thinking; treat them as a nonverbal medium for the human creative faculty.
(http://web.mit.edu/comm-forum/papers/travis.html)

13. Glacier "Bleeds" Proof of Million-Year-Old Life-Forms National Geographic News, April 16, 2009
Gushing from a glacier, rust-stained Blood Falls contains evidence that microbes have survived in prehistoric seawater deep under ice for perhaps millions of years, a new study says. The colony of microscopic life-forms may have been trapped when Antarctica's then advancing Taylor Glacier reached into the ocean 1.5 to 4 million years ago. What's more, the tiny organisms' feeding habits apparently give the falls their shocking color.
14. Barack Obama concluded:
All of us share this world for but a brief moment in time. The question is whether we spend that time focused on what pushes us apart, or whether we commit ourselves to an effort -- a sustained effort -- to find common ground, to focus on the future we seek for our children, and to respect the dignity of all human beings.
15. the UK Sustainable Development Commission report Prosperity without growth

Friday, June 19, 2009

Clocking carbon


The carbon counter unveiled in New York City (report) is worth a look.

Its creators claim to have originated the idea of a real-time carbon counter as a way of providing people with a simple explanation of a complex problem.

But this is a creation with more than one paternity claim attached. At openDemocracy in 2005 we created a crude working model of a version proposed by E3G (see article here; the clock itself is no longer online).

Most conspicuous in the Deutsche Bank version is a display showing the total amount, in tonnes, of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases represented in carbon dioxide equivalent) estimated to be in the atmosphere.

In our version we tried to show the rising level of total CO2(e).

Which works better as a communication tool? Two advantage of our version, I'd say were:
1) You could look at that number in relation to whatever is judged to be a 'safe' level of atmospheric concentrations; and

2) the figures increased at a slow but steady pace, clicking over every few seconds like the tenths of a mile of the milometer in a fast moving car (only in this case measuring thousandths and hundreds of thousandths of parts per million). This was, I think, easier for the eye to take in, and -- perhaps -- more conducive to reflection than the hell-for-leather breakneck speed of the DB clock.
But it had disadvantages too.

You could, of course, make a case for another measure on the clock altogether, such as a countdown of the remaining carbon - perhaps half a trillion tonnes - that it is (within explicitly stated grounds of uncertainty) 'safe' to burn.

Or you can take another approach altogether. It's good to be reminded, for example, of what may be one of the best pieces of communication on climate change so far.

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Living democracy

Let's see democracy as journey, not destination; let's stop worrying about where we end up, and start thinking about where we begin. I think that at Climate Camp we have a very strong sense that the project of revivifying democracy does not begin with a constitutional convention; it does not begin with electoral reform; it does not begin with citizen's juries, or people's peers, or independent MPs, or any of the other ideas you get coming out of the political and media elite. It begins with ordinary people, like you and me, taking action on something we believe in, and transforming society by first transforming ourselves. Because democracy is not something which is given, it is not something which is created from above - it is something which is won.
- Liam Taylor of the Camp for Climate Action at a session on "Radical democracy and imagination" hosted by Real Change at the Compass conference last Saturday, and online at Our Kingdom

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

From Iran

Live tweeting the revolution - AS.



P.S. The NYT Opinionator has a range of views on the tweets.

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Mistaken

The need for control can inspire great achievements, such as dams that prevent flooding, medicines to ease our lives, and perfectly confected chocolate soufflés. But it can also lead to sub-optimal behavior...Studies show that people feel more confident they’ll win at dice if they toss the dice themselves than if others toss them, and that they are likely to bet more money if they make their wager before the dice are tossed than afterward (where the outcome has been concealed)... In each of these situations, the subjects knew that the enterprises in which they were engaged were unpredictable and beyond their control. When questioned, for example, none of the lottery players said they believed that being allowed to choose their card influenced their probability of winning. Yet on a deep, subconscious level they must have felt it did, because they behaved as if it did.
-- from Leonard Mlodinow on the limits of control

RB notes Joshua Greene's observation on why we care most about what is closest to hand.

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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

The conflagration will be televised

Among macaques, humans and some other species, acts of violence are often a way of demonstrating a hierarchy of power amongst individuals (and, at least in the human case, groups), or challenging that hierarchy.

Such acts are a kind of performance. War is, or can be, theatre (although it is never only that).

Extreme acts of violence can be among the biggest 'plays' (spectacles) of all. Karlheinz Stockhausen's controversial observation that 9/11 was Lucifer's greatest work of art does have something to it.

One possible future 'drama' is the detonation of a nuclear weapon in a major city. [1] This possibility, real or imagined, lurks like a sleeper shark down in the water column.

Image from 132 ways to bring a bomb into America by Lawrence M Wein.
Footnote

[1] As Frank Rich has noted :
In his 2006 book on the American intelligence matrix, “The One Percent Doctrine,” [Ron] Suskind wrote about a fully operational and potentially catastrophic post-9/11 Qaeda assault on America that actually was aborted in the Bush years: a hydrogen cyanide attack planned for the New York City subways. It was halted 45 days before zero hour — but not because we stopped it. Al-Zawahri had called it off.

When Bush and Cheney learned of the cancellation later on from conventional intelligence, they were baffled as to why. The answer: Al-Zawahri had decided that a rush-hour New York subway attack was not enough of an encore to top 9/11. Al Qaeda’s “special event” strategy, Suskind wrote, requires the creation of “an upward arc of rising and terrible expectation” that is “multiplied by time passing.” The event that fits that bill after 9/11 must involve some kind of nuclear weapon.
Obama, Cheney and others struggle to control the narratives around such a possible event.

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Saturday, June 13, 2009

A dark week

This past week saw the anniversary of the death of Tom Paine, and the publication of 1984. But it started worse.

First the news that more than 900,000 people voted for the tacky British version of fascists.  

Then the prospects of much needed reform to the British constitution and voting system are set way back by being embraced Gordon Brown's government, where power centres on an unelected peer as First Secretary of just about everything.  (That so many people voted for fascists is not coincidental)

Then a study suggesting the UK may face a new generation of terrorists more dangerous than the semi-trained "amateurs" now in jail.

Fings, as they say, can only get better. Or can they?

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Friday, June 12, 2009

Beyond tactical outrage

If people who have suffered the immediate horrors of war can find it within themselves to rise above the past, and construct a better future surely we can achieve the same level of maturity in climate politics?
-- Nick Mabey and Malini Mehra

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

'Tragedy in Peru'

A friend forwards this note:
Most of you will have heard of the recent massacre of indigenous protesters by Peruvian special forces and about the violence and the persecution of indigenous leaders that has followed. Given the fact that the information available is sketchy, at best, you may want to watch this short and informative video report. One of the persons interviewed is a colleague with a long-term involvement in these issues, (his past work with shinai on land rights and oil companies was funded by the darrell posey foundation), the other is the president of the national indigenous federation, who the government has just charged with sedition.

Amazon watch is doing a key job by providing information from the ground- this is particularly important given the extent to which national media in Peru are controlled by the government and/or associated corporate interests. If you want more information or want to support that work, please visit Amazon Watch.
See, too Avaaz. Democracy now reports:
Over the weekend, Garcia, a free trade advocate, said 40,000 natives did not have the right to tell 28 million Peruvians not to come to their lands. Anyone who did so, he warned, would lead Peru into, quote, “irrationality and a backwards primitive state.”

Since April, indigenous groups have opposed new laws that would allow an unprecedented wave of logging, oil drilling, mining and agriculture in the Amazon rainforest by blocking roads, waterways and oil pipelines. President Garcia’s government passed these laws under “fast track” authority he had received from the Peruvian congress to facilitate implementation of the US-Peru Free Trade Agreement.

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Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Gates in the wall

Zionism, as Amos came to realize, had outlived its usefulness. "As a measure of...'affirmative action,' Zionism was useful during the formative years. Today it has become redundant." What had once been the nationalist ideology of a stateless people has undergone a tragic transition. It has, for a growing number of Israelis, been corrupted into an uncompromising ethno-religious real estate pact with a partisan God, a pact that justifies any and all actions against real or imagined threats, critics, and enemies. The Zionist project, a doctrine dating to the state-building nationalisms of the late nineteenth century, has long since lost its way. It can mean little—though it can do much harm—in an established democratic state with aspirations to normality. In any case it has been hijacked by ultras. Herzl's dream of a "normal" Jewish country has become an exclusivist sectarian nightmare, a development that Amos illustrated by slightly misquoting Keats: "Fanatics have a dream by which they weave a paradise for a sect."
-- from a remembrance of Amos Elon by Tony Judt

In Wall: a monologue (available as a podcast here), David Hare explores some the meanings manifest in gader ha'harfrada (Hebrew: separation fence) or jidar al-fasl al-'unsuri (Arabic: racial segregation wall). He quotes Sari Nusseibeh:
It's like sticking someone in a cage and then when he starts screaming, as any normal person would, using his violent temper as justification for putting him in the cage in the first place. The wall is the perfect crime because it creates the violence it was ostensibly built to prevent.
An unnamed Israeli intellectual says the defining paradox of his country is that:
We look so strong from the outside, we have such a large army, so many nuclear weapons, we're so certain in our expansion, and yet from the inside it doesn't feel like that. We feel our being is not guaranteed. You might say we have imported from the Diaspora the Jewish disease — a sense of rootlessness, an ability to adapt and make do, but not to settle. After sixty years, Israel is not yet a home.
In military terms the wall looks like a classic Maginot line-type mistake, now over-topped by rockets.

George al-Kasaba, who runs a cinema in Ramallah (the only one working on the West Bank; it mostly shows Egyptian comedies), looks through the other end of the telescope:
The wall is not around us. It's around them.
See, too, the video
Gaza: The destitute and the forgotten.

(image at top via BBC)

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Monday, June 08, 2009

Tough

I almost buy Paul Krugman on Gordon the Unlucky

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Thomas Paine, Englishman and citizen of the world

All national institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian or Turkish, appear to me no other than human inventions, set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit.

The religion that approaches the nearest of all others to true deism, in the moral and benign part thereof, is that professed by the Quakers . . . though I revere their philanthropy, I cannot help smiling at [their] conceit; . . . if the taste of a Quaker [had] been consulted at the Creation, what a silent and drab-colored Creation it would have been! Not a flower would have blossomed its gaieties, nor a bird been permitted to sing
.
Died 200 years ago today. Robert Ingersoll wrote:
Thomas Paine had passed the legendary limit of life. One by one most of his old friends and acquaintances had deserted him. Maligned on every side, execrated, shunned and abhorred – his virtues denounced as vices – his services forgotten – his character blackened, he preserved the poise and balance of his soul. He was a victim of the people, but his convictions remained unshaken. He was still a soldier in the army of freedom, and still tried to enlighten and civilize those who were impatiently waiting for his death. Even those who loved their enemies hated him, their friend – the friend of the whole world – with all their hearts. On the 8th of June, 1809, death came – Death, almost his only friend. At his funeral no pomp, no pageantry, no civic procession, no military display. In a carriage, a woman and her son who had lived on the bounty of the dead – on horseback, a Quaker, the humanity of whose heart dominated the creed of his head – and, following on foot, two negroes filled with gratitude – constituted the funeral cortege of Thomas Paine.

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Saturday, June 06, 2009

Miracles of life

Q. Describe suddenly seeing in the three dimensions

A. It was an incredibly joyful experience, a whole new world. I had the hardest time listening to my students because I was fascinated by the way their hands looked while gesturing. Leaves on trees, house plants, door knobs! Everything looked so beautiful. It was hard to describe to people: they looked at me like I was nuts.
--Susan Barry.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

'What can be asked? What can be shown?'

A film from the Ashden Directory on 'British theatre and performance in the time of climate instability'.

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Taking the waters

Jason Kotke notes a new high, or low, in designer waters:
Take Mahalo Deep Sea Water, at £20 for 71cl, which comes from "a freshwater iceberg that melted thousands of years ago and, being of different temperature and salinity to the sea water around it, sank to become a lake at the bottom of the ocean floor. The water has been collected through a 3000ft pipeline off the shores of Hawaii." According to the Daily Mail, Mahalo has a "very rounded quality on the palate" and it "would be good with shellfish."

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England

At the polling station this morning. Two policeman come in to chat with the presiding officer. She has a copy of Burmese Days beside her on the desk. 'Orwell! That's ironic', says one of the policemen.

'Absolutely torture'

As The Man said, it's a no-brainer:

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Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Mixed messages

Mr. Obama will be speaking at Cairo University. When young Arabs and Muslims see an American president who looks like them, has a name like theirs, has Muslims in his family and comes into their world and speaks the truth, it will be empowering and disturbing at the same time. People will be asking: “Why is this guy who looks like everyone on the street here the head of the free world and we can’t even touch freedom?” You never know where that goes.
-- writes Thomas Friedman. Well yes, and Obama's message may seem a whole lot more convincing to many people than Osama's, but they will also see that he heads a government that continues to support the Egyptian and Saudi regimes, two of the least accountable major players in the region and perhaps the world.

P.S. 4 June: Obama's analysis and prescriptions "in most regards maintain flawed American policies intact" says
Ali Abunimah. As Tom Englehardt has reminded, the U.S. is building a $750bn dollar giant "embassy" compound in Islamabad.

But the speech is a classic.

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Monday, June 01, 2009

Time-Lapse Videos of Change on Earth

Wired reports

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Sunday, May 31, 2009

Hope

Friday, May 29, 2009

Brink

The mean age for a suicide bomber is now just sixteen.
-- from Pakistan on the brink by Ahmed Rashid

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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Wake up time

Timothy Garton-Ash (Pin them down) gets it just about right. On House of Lords reform, I support the 'Athenian option' advocated by Anthony Barnett and others. Also, stop calling them 'Lords'.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

The Boston Molasses Disaster

Making the responsible attention choice, however, is not always easy. Here is a partial list, because a complete one would fill the entire magazine, of the things I’ve been distracted by in the course of writing this article: my texting wife, a very loud seagull, my mother calling from Mexico to leave voice mails in terrible Spanish, a man shouting “Your weed-whacker fell off! Your weed-whacker fell off!” at a truck full of lawn equipment, my Lost-watching wife, another man singing some kind of Spanish ballad on the sidewalk under my window, streaming video of the NBA playoffs, dissertation-length blog breakdowns of the NBA playoffs, my toenail spontaneously detaching, my ice-cream-eating wife, the subtly shifting landscapes of my three different e-mail in-boxes, my Facebooking wife, infinite YouTube videos (a puffin attacking someone wearing a rubber boot, Paul McCartney talking about the death of John Lennon, a chimpanzee playing Pac-Man), and even more infinite, if that is possible, Wikipedia entries: puffins, MacGyver, Taylorism, the phrase “bleeding edge,” the Boston Molasses Disaster. (If I were going to excuse you from reading this article for any single distraction, which I am not, it would be to read about the Boston Molasses Disaster.)
-- from In Defense of Distraction by Sam Anderson

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Frugal futures

A startling new report for the UK government’s own Sustainable Development Commission by Professor Tim Jackson, entitled Prosperity without Growth, explores [the very contemporary collision between an easy assumption of a kind of legalised excess, and the emergent politics of climate change] with a verve and passion you would not expect from a government-sponsored initiative. Prof Jackson regrets that “the role of government has been framed so narrowly by material aims and hollowed out by a misguided vision of unbounded consumer freedoms”.
-- Harry Eyres tries to pick up where Michel de Montaigne left off. A few days ago Richard Reeves wrote:
Progressive austerity means vigorously defending the spending that helps the poor, ruthlessly cutting elsewhere and taking the opportunity presented by the crisis to build a fairer tax system. None of this is straightforward. But it is easy to be progressive when there is money in the bank – the real test comes when the coffers are empty.
But John Lanchester is bleak:
I get the strong impression, talking to people, that the penny hasn’t fully dropped. As the ultra-bleak condition of our finances becomes more and more apparent people are going to ask increasingly angry questions about how we got into this predicament. The drop in sterling, for instance, means that prices for all sorts of goods will go up just as oil and gas prices have spiked downwards. Combined with job losses – a million people are forecast to lose their jobs this year, taking unemployment back to Thatcherite levels – and tax rises, and inflation, and the increasing realisation that the cost of the financial crisis is going to be paid not over a few years but over a generation, we have a perfect formula for a deep and growing anger.
Gideon Rachman is unimpressed by the actions so far of two 'Anglo-Saxon' governments:
Rather than taking the axe to public spending, the British and American governments are borrowing madly, with no sign of any credible long-term plan to balance the books. The US, according to the Congressional Budget Office, now has an annual structural budget deficit of 5 per cent of gross domestic product. In Britain, public debt as a proportion of GDP is set to double.

Both countries are in the fortunate position that the markets will still lend to them. In spite of last week’s warning from Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, about rising public debt, Britain has (so far) retained its triple A credit rating. Despite President Barack Obama’s stern words earlier this year that a “day of reckoning has arrived” in which America would finally have to address “critical debates and difficult decisions”, the US is planning to run huge budget deficits for the next decade and beyond.
Nick Paumgarten quotes the financier Colin Negrych:
The idea that you can have something for nothing. It's the human nip. It's the hereafter, here on earth.

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Friday, May 15, 2009

Closed democracy

And now MPs are feeling morose. Tough! They've had plenty of opportunities to do the right thing by parliament and by the people. At every juncture they behaved in the worst possible way. They refused legitimate requests, they wasted public money going to the high court, they delayed publication, they tried to exempt themselves from their own law, they succeeded in passing a law to keep secret their addresses from their constituents so as to hide the house flipping scandal ...

I think in order to begin the clean-up, it is necessary to get rid of those who created the mess in the first place. Only then can we have a parliament of which we are proud.
-- Heather Brooke

Sunday, May 10, 2009

And finally...

...a good play about-climate-change, says Robert Butler

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Friday, May 08, 2009

Art


One of Ballard's key insights is that an atrocity one is powerless to prevent becomes a kind of spectacle.
-- James Warner
Some carvings are at least 30,000 years old and it is even possible that the site is twice the age of the famous Lascaux cave paintings. But there are plans to site a liquid natural gas plant here, and parts of the area have already been destroyed, with images either pulverised or ripped away from where they belong. When this happens, Aboriginal people say, part of a songline is destroyed forever, it is "like our Bible torn apart".
--Jay Griffith

Seeing things

Dot Earth on Globalwarmingart.com and other visualizations.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Planet of doubt

Further to trillion tonne baby, I mentioned Hyrnyshyn's post to a few people. One, an activist, replied:
[Perhaps] the calculation was based on the trillionth tonne of “fossil” carbon – as opposed to including forest/ag/land use change emissions, because the ag/land use totals already have a (poorly defined) fossil fuel component. But split the difference and call it 30 years. I reckon the threshold that really matters is what happens over the next investment cycle for key infrastructure decisions. It used to be 100 months, but I reckon we’re down to around 82. Is that meme compatible with the trillionth tonne meme? Oh-oh, mixed memes.
Another, Chris Goodall, wrote:
The numbers below may be helpful or not.

I’ve taken them from AR4 for 2004 and rounded them crudely. (I haven’t gone back to the Nature papers to check how many gt they say we have left).

Annual emissions (Carbon equiv)

CO2 from man made sources – inc CaCO3 - 8gt
CO2 from ‘land use’ changes and rotting vegetation – 2.5gt
CH4 - 2gt
N20 - 1gt
Fgases – a bit

= circa 12.5gt

Expressed another way, CO2 from man made sources is just under 60% of Kyoto gases.

So if we have 400 gt left, there’s about 50 years. The inclusion of other Kyoto gases would take this down to about 30 years.

But I suppose you could say that F gases will stop soon (we hope) and that N2O will fall as we get better at managing fertilizer use and that CH4 will fall (perhaps) as we reduce cow numbers and wetland abuse. We should, with any luck, be able to reverse land use changes (??) probably by improving/restoring soil carbon.
Dave Frame responded directly to Hrynyshyn here. An extract:
Regarding the emissions scenarios - we treated the emissions of CO2 as net emissions (in our future scenarios) and didn't try to partition them by source. We tried to steer clear of the conversations regarding negative emissions - sequestration by forestry or other means... to me the nice things about the Allen et al paper are that (1) it find a better-constrained relationship between emissions and peak temperature; (2) which exploits the fact that long timescale processes, which are responsible for much of the uncertainty in ECS, can be ignored if the forcing is short compared to those long timescales; (3) and this results in a nice "exhaustible resource" reframing of the problem which; (4) happens to be pretty tractable for economists.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

"Oops, oh dear, oh dear!"


The continuing toll in civilian casualties has been a principal factor in turning many Afghans against the war to defeat the Taliban.
-- High Afghan Civilian Toll Seen in U.S. Raid.

See "Words alone cannot begin to express our regret and sympathy".

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Trillion tonne baby

James Hrynyshyn (The radical "trillionth ton" meme) suggests there may be just 20 years of emissions at business-as-usual rates, not 40, because initial estimates do not take account of emissions from agriculture and forestry. At present I don't know if this is right. [1], [2]

Hrynyshyn also likes the following from the lead authors of the "trillionth ton" papers in the Nature climate package (previously noted here):
A tonne of carbon is a tonne of carbon, whether released today or in 50 years time. Emitting CO2 more slowly buys time, perhaps vital time, but it will only achieve our ultimate goal in the context of a strategy for phasing out net CO2 emissions altogether.
At some point in the past few years, without any fanfare, we burned the half-trillionth tonne. Somewhere out there, in a coal seam, hydrocarbon reservoir or some as-yet-undiscovered exotic form of fossil carbon, lies the trillionth tonne. Its fate, perhaps more than any other consequence of climate-change policy, is inextricably linked to the risk of dangerous climate change. Where will it be in the twenty-second century?
But here's another question. The trillionth tonne 'meme' (would 'frame' be a better word?) takes its energy from the idea that there is something especially significant - fateful - in the odds of a global average temperature increase of more than 2 C crossing a threshold to above one in four. Why?

Aren't the odds already unacceptably high? A one in a twenty chance of, say, a plane crashing would probably keep you off the plane -- unless the downside of not getting on the plane was almost certainly worse (crazy men with guns swearing to kill you right now, for example). What eventualities can we see as likely to be worse than those resulting from a more than 2 C rise this century, and how might they be affected by sharply reducing emissions very soon, or reduced by not doing so?

Footnotes

[1] George Monbiot makes an estimate of how much fossil fuel we can burn. Clearly, it is less than known reserves. As the Stern Review (2005/06) pointed out:
Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels alone will not stop emissions growth in time. The stocks of hydrocarbons that are profitable to extract (under current policies) are more than enough to take the world to levels of CO2 concentrations well beyond 750ppm, with very dangerous consequences for climate-change impacts.
[2] (added 7 May) See Planet of doubt

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More than the photos

...to date the only Americans who have been prosecuted and sentenced to imprisonment for the criminal policies that emanated from the highest levels are ten low-ranking servicemen and women—those who took and appeared in the Abu Ghraib photographs, and embarrassed the nation by showing us what we were doing there. Charles Graner is the only one remaining in prison, serving ten years. His superior officers enjoy their freedom, and C.I.A. interrogators, who spent years committing far worse acts against prisoners than Graner did even in the darkest days at Abu Ghraib, have been assured immunity.

But, if full justice remains impossible, surely some injustices can be corrected. Whenever crimes of state are adjudicated—at Nuremberg or The Hague, Phnom Penh or Kigali—the principle of command responsibility, whereby the leaders who give the orders are held to a higher standard of accountability than the foot soldiers who follow, pertains. There can be no restoration of the national honor if we continue to scapegoat those who took the fall for an Administration—and for us all.
-- from Interrogating Torture by Philip Gourevitch.

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009

The press and sympathy

One of several questions raised by an exchange between George Monbiot and Hazel Blears is what 'ordinary citizens' really care about and why. Blears says she works on 'bread and butter' issues for the people in her Manchester constituency: education, jobs, health-care, a better future in their neighbourhoods and the like. She will not, or sees no need to, tackle HMG's relationship with Islam Karimov, and other 'complex' affairs in the interview.

Some of those seeking to build a bigger and more inclusive sense of concern around issues such as climate change look to the example of the anti-slavery movement in the British Isles in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century. At that time, large numbers of ordinary people in cities such as Manchester, most of them without the vote, organised on behalf of people in bondage half a world away. Why was this?

In Bury the Chains, a tremendous history of the emancipation movement, Adam Hochschild suggests that there was a factor over and above the strength of its civil society that set Britain apart from other slaving nations such as France, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Holland, Denmark and the young United States. Press gangs were almost continuously on the rampage in Britain, seizing men against their will for years of service in the Royal Navy. During the American Revolutionary War alone, for example, 'the press' kidnapped more than eighty thousand men, provoking bloody riots in at least twenty-two British seaports. "As with the outrage at Britons taken prisoner overseas," writes Hochschild, "more than a century of public anger at the press gangs strengthened the idea that violently capturing other human beings to put them to work was cruelly unjust - and could and should be fought against". This, he suggests, was a vital factor in making possible "the leap of empathy" to black African slaves.

Nothing remotely comparable to press gangs directly and immediately threatens the lives of ordinary people in developed countries today -- except, perhaps for Russell Brand and Jonathon Ross. Arousing masses of people to concerted action may therefore be even harder. That does not mean it's necessarily impossible, or that politicians cannot be proactive in moving against atrocity.

The darling buds

The flowers of the apple are perhaps the most beautiful of any tree's, so copious and so delicious to both sight and scent. The walker is frequently tempted to turn and linger near some more than usually handsome one, whose blossoms are two-thirds expanded.
-- Henry David Thoreau (1862)

Thursday, April 30, 2009

'One in four of less than two at under a trillion'

If no climate policies are implemented (red) global warming will cross 2°C by the middle of the century. Making sure we don't emit more than 1 trillion (1000 gigatons) of CO2 in total (blue) would limit the risk of exceeding 2°C to 25%. -- M. Meinshausen et al.


(larger image)
If governments are serious about accepting the risks of escalating emissions...they will find ways to keep emissions within "safe" bounds.

If they are not serious, it doesn't matter how you slice up the problem - it won't be solved.
-- Richard Black.

See: A 21st century greenhouse gas budget? (Feb 07).

Courage

Mr. Cheney's politics of torture, Mark Danner says, looks, Janus-like, in two directions:
back to the past, toward exculpation for what was done under the administration he served, and into the future, toward blame for what might come under the administration that followed.
Obama chooses to take this bull by the horns:
I was struck by an article that I was reading the other day talking about the fact that the British, during World War Two, when London was being bombed to smithereens, had 200 or so detainees. And Churchill said 'we don't torture', when all of the British people were being subjected to unimaginable risk and threat. And the reason was that Churchill understood you start taking shortcuts, and over time, that corrodes what's best in a people. It corrodes the character of a country.

But the narrative gets a little more complicated if you recall that Churchill sanctioned the area bombing of civilian populations in Germany.



P.S. 2 May Dowd on corrosion of character

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The American Century

In Farewell, the American Century Andrew Bacevich almost sounds like the Archbishop of Canterbury:
we [the United States should ] apologize to them [Cuba, Japan, Iran and Afghanistan] for our own good -- to free ourselves from the accumulated conceits of the American Century and to acknowledge that the United States participated fully in the barbarism, folly, and tragedy that defines our time. For those sins, we must hold ourselves accountable.

To solve our problems requires that we see ourselves as we really are. And that requires shedding, once and for all, the illusions embodied in the American Century.
David Hayes and I would have added Iraq to the list.

Paul Collier observes:
Chinese aid to the US has been like EU aid to Chad, but on the grand scale: China paid for Iraq.

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Oligopolis

Baseline scenarios applies a Bourdieu-ian lens to the culture of Wall Street:
I have no reason to believe [Tim Geithner] is corrupt. Instead, the simplest explanation ...is that he has internalized a worldview in which Wall Street is the central pillar of the American economy, the health of the economy depends on the health of a few major Wall Street banks, the importance of those banks justifies virtually any measures to protect them in their current form, large taxpayer subsidies to banks (and to bankers) are a necessary cost of those measures - and anyone who doesn’t understand these principles is a simple populist who just doesn’t understand the way the world really works.

[Geithner] got the cultural education that rich people get, except instead of just going to the Metropolitan Museum of Art and the Museum of Modern Art, he was educated in the culture of Wall Street. Just like an education in art history is a marker of class distinction that is used to perpetuate class distinction, an education in modern finance is a marker of distinction that sets off those who understand the true importance of Wall Street for the American economy. As long the powerful people in Washington, including the regulators who oversee the financial industry, share that worldview, Wall Street’s power and ability to make money will be secure.

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Faster

The rate of increase is much faster than only 10-20 years ago. You can almost see the changes taking place. Never before have CO2 levels increased so fast.
-- Johan Strom, Norwegian Polar Institute, in a report on yearly increases of 2 -3 ppm.

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Monday, April 27, 2009

Create, not consume

We came all this way to explore the moon, and the most important thing is that we discovered was the Earth.
-- Barack Obama quotes Bill Anders

Friday, April 24, 2009

Civilization discontents

Further to the Ballard connected comments at Dark Patrons, this from a substantial essay by Terry Eagleton:
The kind of automated, built-in consent [advanced capitalism] seeks from its citizens does not depend all that much on what they believe. As long as they get out of bed, roll into work, consume, pay their taxes, and refrain from beating up police officers, what goes on in their heads and hearts is mostly secondary. Advanced capitalism is not the kind of regime that exacts much spiritual commitment from its subjects. Indeed, zeal is more to be feared than encouraged. That is an advantage in “normal” times, since demanding too much belief from men and women can easily backfire. But it is much less a benefit in times of political tumult.

"Words alone cannot begin to express our regret and sympathy"

It's true that we forget these killings easily -- often we don't notice them in the first place -- since they don't seem to impinge on our lives. Perhaps that's one of the benefits of fighting a war on the periphery of empire, halfway across the planet in the backlands of some impoverished country.

One problem, though: the forgetting doesn't work so well in those backlands. When your child, wife or husband, mother or father is killed, you don't forget.
-- Tom Englehardt

(The Weapons That Kill Civilians — Deaths of Children and Noncombatants in Iraq, 2003–2008 is online here.)

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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Grapes

Suicide bombers presumably would be in for a disappointment if they reached the pearly gates and were presented 72 grapes.
-- Nicholas Kristof.

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Climate cheer and fear.

We must not give in to pessimism, says Nick Stern.

Close to 100% CCS appears feasible, if expensive, as demonstrated in France and Germany. But it requires the right kind of politics, which is still lacking in the UK.

Attitudes of many people in the U.S. may be moving in the opposite direction from those of the administration , but there's a chance of limited progress in China.

P.S. 24 April: more from Stern et al.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Feed me!

I am not exactly keeping up with the times, but this is too good to miss:



John Shimkus, an Illinois Republican on the House Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, is speaking to Screaming Lord Christopher Monckton of the Monster Raving Loony Party. He argues that because plants need carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, limiting anthropogenic emissions would actually kill the world's plants.

The exchange was recently highlighted by James Kwak (sic) at Baselinescenarios.

Oxfam takes a different view.

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Free

 Last year the Heritage Foundation declared Ireland the third freest economy in the world, behind only Hong Kong and Singapore
-- Paul Krugman 

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Monday, April 20, 2009

Dark patrons

The Dark Mountain Project may seek neither god nor master, but for secular prophets in its own country could consider D H Lawrence and J G Ballard.

In a short remembrance for Ballard this morning, Iain Sinclair said "our last conversation was about the Westfield Shopping Centre, this amazing reef that brings the cathederal of nonidentity to its perfect apogee".[1]

And here's Lawrence back in 1925 (Morality and the Novel):
The business of art is to reveal the relation between man and his circumambient universe, at the living moment. As mankind is always struggling in the coils of old relationships, art is always ahead of the 'times', which themselves are always far in the rear of the living moment...[2]
Footnotes

[1] (added 23 April): Chris Petit writes:
Boredom underpins consumerism. It defines leisure (and desire), which collapses into shopping. Boredom invites terror (as its only cure).
[2] (added 25 April) I had been looking for the short essay on poetry from which this comes:
This is the momentous crisis for mankind, when we have to get back to chaos. So long as the umbrella serves, and poets make slits in it, and the mass of people can be gradually educated up to the vision in the slit: which means they patch it over with a patch that looks just like the vision in the slit; so long as this process can continue, and mankind can be educated up, and thus built in, so long will a civilization continue more or less happily, completing its own painted prison. It is called completing the consciousness.

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A finite pool of worry

[Elke] Weber’s research seems to help establish that we have a “finite pool of worry,” which means we’re unable to maintain our fear of climate change when a different problem — a plunging stock market, a personal emergency — comes along. We simply move one fear into the worry bin and one fear out. And even if we could remain persistently concerned about a warmer world? Weber described what she calls a “single-action bias.” Prompted by a distressing emotional signal, we buy a more efficient furnace or insulate our attic or vote for a green candidate — a single action that effectively diminishes global warming as a motivating factor. And that leaves us where we started.
-- from Why Isn’t the Brain Green? by Jon Gertner

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Debating climate risks

A useful discussion hosted by Andy Revkin

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Pointing fingers

Discover magazine features a gallery of images of Man's Greatest Crimes Against the Earth. These include, it seems, Bhopal, air and water pollution in China, mountaintop removal for coal and the illegal trade in bushmeat. Deforestation in Indonesia is also on the list; it makes the country the world's third largest contributor of greenhouse gases, we are helpfully told.

But there is no mention is made of emissions of greenhouse gases from the production and consumption of oil.

These 'nine saddest pictures on the planet' are sponsored by the ConocoPhillips Energy Prize.

In 2007 ConocoPhillips, the world's fifth largest refiner, produced 1,880,000 barrels of oil equivalent. [1]


Footnote

1] 2007 Factbook, ConocoPhillips.com . Includes Syncrude but excludes LUKOIL.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

What is to be done?

John Sauven is right encourage climate campaigners, now released, not to be intimidated.

And so long as there is no significant risk that interrupting operations at coal-fired power stations will jeopardise electricity supplies to vital institutions such as hospitals, peaceful protests should continue.

Such actions could be a little like a strictly non-violent version of John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry. They are needed to shake others into awareness and action. And we need shaking. [1] As Andrew Simms recently put it:

Imagine that every day of your life you have taken a walk in the woods and the worse thing to happen was an acorn or twig falling on your head.

Then, one day, you stroll out, look up and there is a threat approaching so large, unexpected and outside your experience that can't quite believe it, like a massive gothic cathedral falling from the sky.

Footnotes:

[1] By the way, I agree with the part of this comment which holds that peak oil is a red herring.

[2] Unlike many of his contemporaries, Thoreau did not hesitate to meet with John Brown. One hundred and sixty years ago he wrote:
There are thousands who are in opinion opposed to slavery and to the war, who yet in effect do nothing to put an end to them...They hesitate, and they regret, and sometimes they petition; but they do nothing in earnest and with effect. They will wait, well disposed, for other to remedy the evil, that they may no longer have it to regret. At most, they give up only a cheap vote, and a feeble countenance and Godspeed, to the right, as it goes by them.
In conversation with Rana Mitter, Slavoj Zizek recently got close. (My faulty transcription):
Terror is for me another name for ethics. The most noble of terror that's how I think of it. Let’s say you’re in a situation where you have a nice life and so on, but you know that you have to do something, you simply must. If you don't do it you will betray yourself. That’s terror for me. Terror for me in the most noble sense. Ethical acting doesn't come easy.

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Thursday, April 09, 2009

A Chinese approach

Isabel Hilton circulates a note:
We thought you might be interested in this three-part opinion article, just published on chinadialogue.net about China's climate-change policy -- by leading Chinese economist Hu Angang.

The current classification of nations as either "developed" or "developing", he writes, does not reflect reality and is preventing a fair agreement being reached climate change. Instead, Hu proposes two new principles. First, nations should be assigned to one of four categories according to their Human Development Index (HDI) ranking. Second, major greenhouse-gas emitters should be made to bear greater responsibility for emissions reduction. He then calculates the emissions reductions China should make and proposes a “road map” for use within China.

Read the full article here: A-new-approach-at-Copenhagen 1, 2 & 3

I hope you find it of interest
warm regards

Isabel
P.S. 10 Apr: Evan Osnos reports on cooperation between the U.S. and China on climate change and energy. And here is what Orville Schell wrote in February.

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Alternative sets of procedures

Mark Danner does a useful job on government sanctioned torture (US Torture: Voices from the Black Sites, The Red Cross Torture Report: What It Means). One can see the violence inherent in doublethink at work. As George W. Bush asked, 'What does that mean, "outrages upon human dignity"?'

Less publicized, perhaps, has been the widespread use of solitary confinement in U.S prisons and the ramifications of this practice, which is a form of torture. In his remarkable investigation, Hellhole, Atul Gawande observes:
With little concern or demurral, we have consigned tens of thousands of our own citizens to conditions that horrified our highest court a century ago. Our willingness to discard these standards for American prisoners made it easy to discard the Geneva Conventions prohibiting similar treatment of foreign prisoners of war, to the detriment of America’s moral stature in the world. In much the same way that a previous generation of Americans countenanced legalized segregation, ours has countenanced legalized torture. And there is no clearer manifestation of this than our routine use of solitary confinement—on our own people, in our own communities, in a supermax prison, for example, that is a thirty-minute drive from my door

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'The Quiet Coup'

In its depth and suddenness, the U.S. economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets (and only in emerging markets): South Korea (1997), Malaysia (1998), Russia and Argentina (time and again). In each of those cases, global investors, afraid that the country or its financial sector wouldn’t be able to pay off mountainous debt, suddenly stopped lending. And in each case, that fear became self-fulfilling, as banks that couldn’t roll over their debt did, in fact, become unable to pay. This is precisely what drove Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy on September 15, causing all sources of funding to the U.S. financial sector to dry up overnight. Just as in emerging-market crises, the weakness in the banking system has quickly rippled out into the rest of the economy, causing a severe economic contraction and hardship for millions of people.

But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.
--Simon Johnson on becoming a banana republic.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Fear and trembling


One night last week I had a terrible dream. My little daughter and I were walking on giant rusty bridge high above a seaway. [1] We went too close to the edge and fell to our deaths.

Dreams (never mind waking life) can be slippery and unfixed, but I find it almost impossible not to assign a meaning to this one: that the future for my daughter may be catastrophe. The previous day I had read an article about evidence of rapid climate change in the Arctic, and it struck me more than such things usually do. [2]

We have long known, if we have been paying attention [3], that scientists studying earth systems and climate change believe there are significant risks of changes with potentially dire consequences. We have long known that these risks include positive feedbacks, including a rapid release of methane. [4] And we have known for nearly two years that a recent increase in atmospheric concentrations of methane could be a sign of that particular feedback kicking in. We have long known that rapid and effective action to reduce and (quite soon) eliminate emissions is the only sensible option. But this particular article shook me deep down.

The usual response is that despair is a self-fulfilling prophecy: it’s not over until it’s over. And the usual response may be the right one. [5]

But other thoughts arise: Isn’t this optimism of the will actually just another form of denial? [6] Much of human history suggests that - however wise some institutions and individuals may be, societies are very poor at anticipating and heading off complex and intractable dangers they cannot immediately see. Greed and short term thinking are so deeply embedded in the way we organize and are organized that nothing will shift them in time. The solutions don’t have a hope, whispers a little voice. We’re not going to get our act together, [7] [8] and even if we do it may be too late. Terrible suffering and death is coming, and this actually means you and all you care about. [9] The idea that we have moved beyond the worst horrors that the 20th century could throw at us such as genocide and the threat of nuclear annihilation is going to prove laughable.

I have pretended to be mostly hard-boiled, less-deceived [10], at least when not feeling bewildered by low-level indifference and stupidity, rage at those who tell the big lies and do the big crimes, or self-disgust that I am not doing more to make things better. But there has usually been an element of distance in this: the wrong end of the telescope, the sound muffled by water.

Now, it seems, the 'lessons' of the great tragedies which a duffer like me studied long ago may actually apply to us, to me. I would not mind too much if that was just for myself, but I'm not sure I can stand it for my little daughter [11], who I love more than I can say and who ties me to life and the future in a way I cannot escape. [12]

So here we stand, perhaps close to the brink of catastrophe, carrying on as if it was not there. I plant seeds and listen to the spring birdsong.



Footnotes

[1] It resembled the Menai, a symbol of the first industrial age and itself built about 50 years after The Iron Bridge and more than 100 years after the Atmospheric Engine. I had this dream a few days before the news came through of the collapse of an ice bridge in Antarctica.

[2] Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity by Fred Pearce, New Scientist 25 March 2009, is a short feature, well put together. Pearce has form as reporter and author of several books on climate change, water and other issues. The article begins:
"I am shocked, truly shocked," says Katey Walter, an ecologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. "I was in Siberia a few weeks ago, and I am now just back in from the field in Alaska. The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them."

Back in 2006, in a paper in Nature, Walter warned that as the permafrost in Siberia melted, growing methane emissions could accelerate climate change. But even she was not expecting such a rapid change. "Lakes in Siberia are five times bigger than when I measured them in 2006. It's unprecedented. This is a global event now, and the inertia for more permafrost melt is increasing."...
[3] I got into this game in the early nineties, being employed by Crispin Tickell who was among those who grasped the gravity of the issues back in the 1970s. Even in the nineties obsessing about climate change was a slightly weird minority sport - something it shares with Morris dancing.

[4] See also CO2 rise continues, but check out methane and
Methane prime suspect for greatest mass extinction. Feedbacks, or tipping points, are thought to be a risk. Not everyone agrees they are certain. See debate.

[5] A typical recent example is A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy by George Monbiot. Guy Dauncey’s new blog is yet another brave effort in the solutions vein. I spent more than fifteen years working on such things myself. [Added 16 April: see, too, Facing Climate Change. Thanks VS for this link.]

[6] See, for example, Dishonest campaigning for paltry solutions by Paul Kingsnorth

[7] (added 22 May): How's this for real politics:
On May 15th Henry Waxman and Edward Markey, the Democratic point-men on climate change in the House of Representatives, unveiled a bill that would give away 85% of carbon permits for nothing, with only 15% being auctioned. The bill’s supporters say this colossal compromise was necessary to win the support of firms that generate dirty energy or use a lot of it, and to satisfy congressmen from states that mine coal or roll steel.
[8] Another thought: what if the best scientists are wrong, not because the so-called skeptics (who are fraudsters, fools and criminals) are right but because the science turns out to have been more complex than foreseen, with results that somehow turn out to be more benign, or because there do turn out to be get-out-jail-free cards such as energy-related and/or geo-engineering technologies that deliver much more than they destroy?

[9] Schellnhuber contemplates a human population reduced to about one billion. James Lovelock talks about a 'cull'.

[10] See Tidings by Czelaw Milosz.

[11] Concluding a review of The Road by Cormac McCarthy, Michael Chabon writes:
What emerges most powerfully as one reads The Road is not a prognosticatory or satirical warning about the future, or a timeless parable of a father's devotion to his son, or yet another McCarthyesque examination of the violent underpinnings of all social intercourse and the indifference of the cosmic jaw to the bloody morsel of humanity. The Road is not a record of fatherly fidelity; it is a testament to the abyss of a parent's greatest fears. The fear of leaving your child alone, of dying before your child has reached adulthood and learned to work the mechanisms and face the dangers of the world, or found a new partner to face them with. The fear of one day being obliged for your child's own good, for his peace and comfort, to do violence to him or even end his life. And, above all, the fear of knowing—as every parent fears—that you have left your children a world more damaged, more poisoned, more base and violent and cheerless and toxic, more doomed, than the one you inherited. It is in the audacity and single-mindedness with which The Road extends the metaphor of a father's guilt and heartbreak over abandoning his son to shift for himself in a ruined, friendless world that The Road finds its great power to move and horrify the reader.
[12] See, for example, this from Waterland by Graham Swift:
The Here and Now, which brings both joy and terror, comes but rarely - does not even come when we call it. That’s the way it is: life includes a lot of empty space.
My babe so beautiful ! it thrills my heart
With tender gladness, thus to look at thee
-- Coleridge

P.S. 14 April: World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree and To stop a climate catastrophe we must first believe we can make a difference.

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Saturday, April 04, 2009

Next

Who is saying sensible things about the economic-environmental 'crisis', and what to do next?

Margaret Atwood (reviewed by John Gray) almost certainly.

Geoff Mulgan is almost convincing.

But what about Saskia Sassen, who sees conspiracy , or David Brooks, who goes (predictably) for cock-up.

David Hayes puts together some mostly UK voices from civil society

Friday, March 27, 2009

Households

A brief reflection on this history and present circumstances drives a plain conclusion: the full restoration of private credit will take a long time. It will follow, not precede, the restoration of sound private household finances. There is no way the project of resurrecting the economy by stuffing the banks with cash will work. Effective policy can only work the other way around.
-- No Return to Normal by James K. Galbraith

...especially about the future

Other studies have confirmed the general sense that expertise is overrated. In one experiment, clinical psychologists did no better than their secretaries in their diagnoses. In another, a white rat in a maze repeatedly beat groups of Yale undergraduates in understanding the optimal way to get food dropped in the maze. The students overanalyzed and saw patterns that didn’t exist, so they were beaten by the rodent.
-- Nicholas Kristof

One of the last times I tried in public this I was wrong

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Listen up

At first sight, the recommendations from Stern and the Potsdam people (Towards a Global Green Recovery) seem to be almost as sensible as one might reasonably expect.  But will the G20 leaders listen?

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Visions

A few days ago China called for a new global reserve currency. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor People’s Bank, 'said the proposal would require “extraordinary political vision and courage” and acknowledged a debt to John Maynard Keynes, who made a similar suggestion in the 1940s.'

And in today's FT, Nicholas Stern calls for an institution to make unbiased global risk assessments.

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Shafted again

They don't use the D word, but neither Martin Wolf nor James Galbraith is impressed by the Geithner plan.
If this scheme works, a number of the fund managers are going to make vast returns. I fear this is going to convince ordinary Americans that their government is a racket run for the benefit of Wall Street.
writes Wolf.
What’s not to like about [the plan], if you’re a big bank?
says Galbraith, who continues
The ultimate objective, and in President Obama’s own words, the test of this plan, is whether it will “get credit flowing again.”...Short answer: It won’t.

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Already catastrophic

Pete Postelthwaite as the last man on earth may make a useful dramatic framing device in The Age of Stupid, but it is hardly realistic. More likely, perhaps, is more of the world looking like this (also reported here).

[P.S. 3 April: Often one to surprise, Paul Collier is optimistic about Haiti.]

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Shame

We are shamelessly succumbing to Chinese pressure. I feel deeply distressed and ashamed.
- Desmond Tutu

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Monday, March 23, 2009

'Despair'

It’s as if the president were determined to confirm the growing perception that he and his economic team are out of touch, that their economic vision is clouded by excessively close ties to Wall Street. And by the time Mr. Obama realizes that he needs to change course, his political capital may be gone.
-- Paul Krugman

see also Maureen Dowd on the 'shafters of the universe'.

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Sunday, March 22, 2009

Semi-detached

"I can't believe that people are still walking around just doing their jobs, going about their lives."

So here was a very senior diplomat in effect wondering why more people were not taking to the streets in greater numbers
.
-- Mark Mardell

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Holy war

An investigation by reporter Uri Blau, published on Friday in Haaretz, disclosed how Israeli soldiers were ordering T-shirts to mark the end of operations [in Gaza], featuring grotesque images including dead babies, mothers weeping by their children's graves, a gun aimed at a child and bombed-out mosques.

Another T-shirt designed for infantry snipers bears the inscription "Better use Durex" next to a picture of a dead Palestinian baby, with his weeping mother and a teddy bear beside him. A shirt designed for the Givati Brigade's Shaked battalion depicts a pregnant Palestinian woman with a bull's-eye superimposed on her belly, with the slogan, in English, "1 shot, 2 kills".
-- Gaza war crime claims gather pace as more troops speak out

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Saturday, March 21, 2009

A focus of evil

Evil is a fascination for us. It helps focus all the evil outside on a specific person. That's the one that's bad; we're the good ones. So it helps you to feel good and it serves some atavistic need in all of us. This is probably why executions were - and in some cases still are - public.
-- Heidi Kastner

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Friday, March 20, 2009

Spring buzz

This morning an enormous bumblebee flew into my shed. This, more than anything so far, seems like a sign of spring, as clear as the visit of a dragonfly seems like a sign of high summer.

I helped the bumblebee out again and on its way...

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Not winning

Bagram is just 80km (50 miles) from Kabul, but most coalition troops and foreign workers fly between the two in huge military transport planes that barely take off before it is time to land again. That tells you all you need to know about the state of security in Afghanistan, more than seven years into the war.
Julian Borger

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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

'Not MY job'



James Lovelock warned at least eight years ago that, collectively, we have hardly begun to get or act together on climate change and global governance. John Beddington seems to agree. And when it comes to what really matters we are still stuck in a giant game of pass the parcel. Three examples this week: Europe shows every sign of procrastination/avoidance of its commitments to poor nations; China blames consuming nations (even though it is using them to grow rich); and Shell pulls out of solar and wind.

George Monbiot wonders what is going on at Shell. But surely there is no mystery. The corporation is following its bliss, aka money. At least its interest in 'new generation' biofuels appears to be honest (and these fuels may even be relatively good news). For decency's sake, however, Shell should cease to pretend that CCS will mitigate emissions from tar sands in the foreseeable future.

Here's to civil society pressure and a heap more technology.

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Monday, March 16, 2009

Fear, but not despair

I enjoy John Schellnhuber's deadpan style as much as anyone, and his warning should be taken seriously.

It's also good to see Yadvinder Malhi arguing against a counsel of despair regarding the Amazon:
I must say I find it frustrating that the gloomiest take on news gets such a big profile. This is based on one model, and that model has flaws (especially its temperature sensitivity that seems too great..., and its rainfall that seems too low... The danger is that that such apparent bad news makes all the efforts to conserve the Amazon forests worthless (why bother saving them if they are already doomed?), and encourages disengagement and hopelessness rather than action. If that conclusion was based on solid empirical science then so be it, but when such a story goes out on a pure model study (not yet peer-reviewed) with significant imperfections, it may do a lot of damage in the real world.

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Friday, March 13, 2009

Some moments of happiness

this afternoon: planting my first seeds of the year while listening to Hallelujah Junction by John Adams.

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Scams and jams

Yesterday Bernie Madoff pleaded guilty to the largest investor fraud by a single person.

Last week Elizabeth Warren explained how Henry Paulson (Time's Person of the Year for 2008) misrepresented a no-strings, no oversight $250bn 'subsidy' to the best and brightest in U.S. banking.

John Cassidy asks whether Obama is bold enough to nationalise the banks.

Paul Kennedy wonders about the wisdom of "allocating more money to buying bad debts and rescuing bad banks than investing in job creation", and contemplates a United States plunging into "levels of indebtedness that could make Philip II of Spain’s record seem austere by comparison"

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Extermination and genocide in law

There is a contradiction between the [International Criminal Court] judges' allowing of the charge of "extermination" (as a "crime against humanity") against Sudanese government forces and their rejection of the genocide charge. If there is reasonable evidence to suggest that Sudanese forces pursued a policy of extermination against some Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa, then this is surely prima facie support - even on a narrow "physical" definition of group destruction - for the charge of genocide against these groups "in part" (as the convention puts it).

In the end, however, the judges' key argument centres on the same point that the [International Court of Justice] used to reject (with the exception of Srebrenica) the claim that Serbian forces had committed genocide in Bosnia: the existence of a "special intention" for genocide... This rarefied legal concept of intention means that courts feel able to reject genocide claims even when the perpetrators manifestly intended to destroy the "enemy" society in whole or part, and even when they have attempted to physically exterminate some of its people.
-- from Sudan, the ICC and genocide: a fateful decision by Martin Shaw

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