Saturday, January 29, 2005

Climate prediction

Results from give a range of possible global
temperature rise (on doubling of pre-industrial levels of carbon
dioxide) of up to 11 degrees Centigrade (the BBC report is here).

The bad news is that even if the lower end of this predicted range
of temperature rise (i.e. only 2C) takes place, that is still on the
threshold of “dangerous” rates of change.

As one of the 95,000 participants in,
my first reaction was shock. But some early analysis argues there are
flaws in the model: in the Real Climate blog
(29 Jan), Gavin Schmidt
and Stefan Rahmstorf make a case for these.

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