"No one can argue that the prospects for stability in Iraq are good. At best, the formation of a government will be the prelude to four months of debate over the constitution and every other divisive issue. There will follow two months of political struggle over a referendum to approve the result and Iraqis must then decide whether they can live with implementing the result. The 'best case' is probably political turmoil well into 2007 and probably 2008".Cordesman thinks "there can be no real exit". For those without FT subscription see comment attached to this post.
(P.S. 9 May: Cordesman puts the case against splitting Iraq into three in the NYT)