Monday, May 22, 2006

Freak warmth in Svalbard

More on the Arctic at describes a remarkable warming event in Svalbard this April:
"The April mean temperature is almost 5 standard deviations above the mean, a "5 sigma event" in statistical parlance. Under the assumption of stationary 'normal' statistics, such an event is considered astronomically improbable (less than 1 in a million), and, like the summer heat wave in Europe in 2003 (which was a 5 sigma event in Switzerland, 3 sigma over Europe as a whole), deserves special attention".
Did any of those -- scientists, artists or others - associated with projects such as Cape Farewell (see also here and here) have a presentiment of such an event?

1 comment:

Alastair said...

I wasn't on last year's trip to Svalbard but I have been worrying about the melting of the Arctic ice for serreal years now. See:

The sharp rise in temperature on Svaalbard is not an isolated event. It is all part of a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. See:,,1774815,00.html

In other words the situation is despeate but the climate modellers still have faith in their models and will not believe it is happening.